Markets and Indices

Celticheart Investor

A beginner's guide to trading and investing

When it comes to investing one of the most important considerations is which markets do you invest in. By that I mean do you invest in the main stock markets such as the Footsie which tend to be better regulated and more stable or do you invest in one of the smaller markets such as AIM http://www.londonstockexchange.com/companies-and-advisors/aim/aim/aim.htm which is made up of smaller cap companies and is without doubt a more volatile market? Ultimately it comes down to your approach to investment and risk.  

AIM is, at least according to their website, the most successful growth market 
in the world. Since its launch in 1995, over 3,000 companies from around the world have chosen to join AIM. 

There are of course many indices in the UK stock markets: 

• FTSE 100
• FTSE 250
• FTSE 350
• FTSE All-Share
• FTSE AIM All-Share
• FTSE techMARK All-Share
• FTSE SmallCap
• FTSE Eurotop 300
• Ethical Indices

The main markets are more stable with generally a far higher share price, particularly in the Footsie 100, the growth rate might not be spectacular but the risk is generally far less (although nothing is certain in today's market) and you are far more likely to get a dividend paid on your investment.

The added advantage of investing in the main markets is that they are ISA allowable, whereas previously AIM stocks have not been although looks like it is about to change as is explained below: 

During the recent budget announcement, George Osborne announced that from April 14th next year no stamp duty will be payable for shares that are listed on AIM and other so called "growth" markets (currently 0.5% duty on all markets). He also said that he was in consultation over the allowance of AIM shares into stocks and shares ISA, this has now been approved and will become allowable from 5th August this year.

Until now the only AIM stocks that were allowable were those that were dual listed e.g. listed on both AIM and ASX http://www.asx.com.au/ or AIM and ISE http://www.ise.ie/

It is also worth bearing in mind that these share are not subject to inheritance tax, provided they have been held for at least two years.

I am restricting my market listing to those in the UK as, for most small investors in this country that is where they choose to invest, even though the companies they invest in can also be listed on other global markets.

One thing I have noticed is that investors who frequently monitor their holdings rarely seem to look at the overall performance of their Indices. This year I think it is fair to say that the smaller markets have taken a real hammering and have been seen as very Bearish but recently all of the UK Indices Ichimoku Trader on http://www.ichimokutrader.com/ seem to be indicating a Bullish trend or Bull run is imminent. I sincerely hope that they are right.

Footsie 100 (Chart courtesy of amCharts.com)

AIM (Chart courtesy of amCharts.com) 

A cautionary note, trading and investing in shares carries a level of risk, these blogs are only meant as a basic guideline to investing and trading, always do your own research and base your decisions on what you can afford to lose. This blog is not intended to provide financial advice as I am not qualified to do so, it is simply designed to provide information about how the markets work that might be of some help to private investors like myself.

Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) charting

Celticheart Investor

A beginner's guide to trading and investing

The Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) chart, also known as the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo; Ichimoku meaning “One Look” is a modern Japanese charting system that (as it says on the tin) shows a lot of information at a glance, without the need for any other technical indicator, something that candlestick charts cannot do alone, relying on multiple supporting tools as we have seen in previous chapters. 

As with other Technical Analysis indicators the purpose of this system is to help us determine changes in market direction and trading signals. This system was developed by Goichi Hosoda, a Japanese journalist, and was published in 1969.

At first glance the Ichimoku Cloud looks complicated but if you take a little time to study it the simplicity of the system soon becomes clear, as you would expect from an indicator that was created by a journalist not an analyst.

Ichimoku Cloud shows us, in one easily accessible chart, probable future support and resistance levels as well as momentum and trend directions. Some of the elements we are already familiar with such as the moving averages, Tenkan-sen (Conversion line) and Kijun-sen (Base line) to show bullish and bearish crossover points, similar to that of the EMA 20 and EMA 50 (See chapter Eleven, Moving Averages).

The "clouds" (kumo, in Japanese) are the areas formed between spans of the moving average of the Tenkan-sen (Conversion line) and Kijun-sen (Base line), which are plotted six months ahead Senkou (Leading) span B and of the midpoint of the 52-week high and low (Senkou span B) also plotted six months ahead.

        

Analysis tells us that we are in an uptrend when the prices are above the cloud, and in a downtrend down when prices are below the cloud. When prices are within the cloud itself the market is seen as flat or indecisive.

Senkou span A crossing above Senkou span B indicates a strong uptrend, and just like candlesticks, is shown as a green coloured cloud (Kumo). Conversely when Senkou span B crosses above Senkou span A the trend is downwards and is shown as a red coloured cloud (Kumo).

Because the Cloud is projected 26 days in advance it can, unusually, provide us with a glimpse of future support or resistance.

The Ichimoku Cloud consists of five basic plots as explained below:

Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): This is the 9 day high + the 9 day low divided by 2. The default span for this is 9 trading periods but can of course be adjusted

Kijun-sen (Base Line): This is the 26 day high + the 26 day low divided by 2. The default span for this is 26 trading periods but can also be adjusted to suit your trading strategy.

Senkou Span A (Leading Span A) is the average of the conversion and base lines, calculated with 9 and 26 trading periods, Senkou Span A (green) moves faster than Senkou B (red) much as EMA20 moves faster than EMA50.

Senkou Span B (Leading Span B): is the 52 day high + the 52 day low divided by 2. This is the mid point of the 52 day high and low trading range. Although the default setting for this is 52 periods it can also be adjusted. This value is also plotted 26 periods ahead, which is why it is referred to as a leading span.

Chikou Span (Lagging Span): This is plotted 26 days behind the current trading. The default setting is 26 periods, but as with the Senkou Span (Leading span) this can be adjusted to suit. Because this value is plotted 26 periods behind it is referred to as a lagging or trailing span.

For a more in-depth look at the Ichimoku Cloud system go to:

http://www.ichimokutrader.com/

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/ichimokuchart.asp

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:ichimoku_cloud

A cautionary note, trading and investing in shares carries a level of risk, these blogs are only meant as a basic guideline to investing and trading, always do your own research and base your decisions on what you can afford to lose. This blog is not intended to provide financial advice as I am not qualified to do so, it is simply designed to provide information about how the markets work that might be of some help to private investors like myself.