Confirmation

Celticheart Investor

A beginner's guide to trading and investing

I just had to post this chart as a great example of how to recognise confirmation signals. The initial signal was 

a spinning top (not quite a doji) 3 days ago followed by a relatively weak confirmation signal and, with the release of yesterday's RNS a much more positive signal that this company is moving back up quite dramatically. It is all about reading the signs and reacting accordingly from a chartist's point of view.

Next time:  Bollinger bands

A cautionary note, trading and investing in shares carries a level of risk, these blogs are only meant as a basic guideline to investing and trading, always do your own research and base your decisions on what you can afford to lose. This blog is not intended to provide financial advice as I am not qualified to do so, it is simply designed to provide information about how the markets work that might be of some help to private investors like myself.

Patterns

Celticheart Investor

A beginner's guide to trading and investing

Understanding how individual candlesticks are formed is  one thing but how do we go about understanding their significance in the greater scheme of things?

Well the secret is quite simple really, like a lot of oriental based knowledge, it is all about recognising repeating patterns and their associated actions. By that I mean that if certain patterns are usually (not always) followed by certain market reactions then we can use those "triggers" to our advantage.

Charting patterns can, as I have previously explained fall into one of three categories, Bullish (buyers dominant), Bearish (sellers dominant) or Neutral (neither buyers nor sellers dominant). The problem is the strength of those signals vary in certainty from a weak signal (there might be a directional change) to a strong signal (there will almost certainly be a directional change). 
I say almost certainly because in the world of investing, especially in small caps there is no such thing as certainty, no matter who tells you there is.

Forgive me if I re-visit elements that I have already talked about but seeing them in isolation is not the same as seeing them in the context of a chart. 
So let's look at some examples of charts showing these repeating patterns:

This is an example of a candlestick chart for the Footsie 100, as you can see 
the change in direction is preceded by a spinning top or a hammer but the important thing to notice is the next bar which gives a confirmation of that change in direction. Interestingly enough the colour of the bar is less important than the formation of that candlestick.

This is a great example of how charting patterns repeat themselves, note the similarity in the MACD, the relative positions of the EMA20 dn EMA 50 and also 
the closing together of the Bollinger bands just prior to an uptrend.

Looking at individual reversal signals though is less effective than some of the patterns we have looked at previously. Learn to identify at least some these combinations for more accurate interpretation of the charts. This is just a sampling there are many more patterns to become aware of as you progress.
 

  


Apart from what we have already looked at here another pattern which we should look at, and are often regarded as being the most positive of reversal signals, so much so that you don't even have to wait for a confirmation signal
(if you are brave enough), they are called kickers and appear in both Bullish 
and Bearish variants.

In the bullish version, after three successive days of seller dominance the trend reverses on the fourth day with such a positive shift that it often forcing short sellers to close their positions with spectacular effect, the reverse happens in the bearish version of this strong signal.

One pattern that is well worth looking at is the "Bearish Tri Star Pattern", which is a very rare but significant top reversal pattern. It is formed by three Dojis. with the centre Doji being above the other two (called a Doji star).

For this signal to be valid the market has to be in an uptrend, the Dojis have to appear on three consecutive days. The second day Doji has to have a gap above the first and third Dojis.

The explanation for why this is so significant is that the fiest Doji indicates that the uptrend has stalled, the second shows that the market has lost direction and the third confirms indecision leading to a reversal.

To be sure that this is in act a reversal you should look for the fourth day as a confirmation signal, a black or red candlestick, a gap down or a lower close.


Next time: Confirmation

A cautionary note, trading and investing in shares carries a level of risk, these blogs are only meant as a basic guideline to investing and trading, always do your own research and base your decisions on what you can afford to lose. This blog is not intended to provide financial advice as I am not qualified to do so, it is simply designed to provide information about how the markets work that might be of some help to private investors like myself.

Candlesticks

Celticheart Investor

A beginner's guide to trading and investing

So lets look at the candlesticks themselves and try to understand what it was about the day's trading that created them the way they finished the day..

It might not seem that important but, in my opinion, if you can see where those signals emanated from it will help you to understand their significance. Generally speaking, the longer the body is, the more intense the buying or selling pressure. Short candlesticks on the other hand show little movement in the share price from opening to close (the extreme form of this being the Doji).

Long white candlesticks show strong buying pressure. The longer the white candlestick is, the further the close is above the opening price, which shows 
that the share price increased from open to close and buyers were dominant.

Long black candlesticks show strong selling pressure. The longer the black candlestick is, the further the close is below the open, which shows that the share price reduced from the opening price and sellers were dominant.

An even stronger signal of seller or buyer dominance is the Marubozu, Black and White. The distinct feature of the Marubozu is that it does not have top or bottom wicks (sometimes called shadows). A White Marubozu forms when the share price opens at the day low and closes at the day high. This shows that the buyers were in control for the entire session. A Black Marubozu forms when the share price opens at the day high and closes at the day low. This shows that the sellers were in control for the entire session.

The upper and lower wicks or shadows on candlesticks (black and white) can give us valuable information about the trading session. Upper wicks represent the day's highest trades and lower wicks the day's lowest trades. 

If the candlesticks' wicks were short then the share price stayed close to the open and close positions (low volatility). If the candlesticks had long wicks this shows that the trading range was well outside the open and close positions (high volatility).

Next time:  Repeating patterns

A cautionary note, trading and investing in shares carries a level of risk, these blogs are only meant as a basic guideline to investing and trading, always do your own research and base your decisions on what you can afford to lose. This blog is not intended to provide financial advice as I am not qualified to do so, it is simply designed to provide information about how the markets work that might be of some help to private investors like myself.

Reading the Signs

Celticheart Investor

A beginner's guide to trading and investing

Interpreting candlestick charts might seem complex at first but as with all things, the more you understand the easier it gets. There are many elements that can be applied to charting (Stochastics, Bollinger bands often called BBs, Parabolics, Fibonacci numbers and MACD) but for now we will focus only on the candlesticks themselves and look at the others an element at a time. Trying to understand them all at once would only add to the confusion.

To recognise what the candlesticks mean we have to look at the patterns they form. It is by seeing repeating patterns that we come to understand the likely course that trading will follow. Basically all candlestick charts are mapping is sentiment; whether or not the market is positive, negative or neutral and more importantly which way the trend is going to shift.

To start with there are a only a few basic elements you need to worry about, as I mentioned earlier the basic structure of the bar is as shown here on the left with a main body in solid or white and wicks at top and bottom. These are frequently also shown as red and blue or green.

You don't really need to worry about what they are called only to recognise the shapes and the patterns they will form part of in your candlestick chart. It does help to know their names though so that you understand what others are referring to.

So lets look at some basic indicators and what they mean. Candlesticks come in three basic types; Bullish (buyers are dominant), Bearish (Sellers are dominant) and if they are Neutral (Neither buyers nor sellers are dominant).  

If the pattern is bullish then the likelyhood is the share price will either stay as 

it is or rise, if it is bearish then there is a chance the share price will drop and 

of course if it is neutral the price will not change.

The trick is to try and anticipate the change of direction or sentiment before it happens or at least recognise the start of that change. These are some basic patterns that will help you identify that change. 

Some are stronger signals than others but I would always say not to take one signal alone as a certainty, look for conformation signals to back it up.

Below is an example of such a change in direction from earlier today on MAGP showing a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish.

The chart on the right was based on 1 hour increments but the same principles can apply on a daily, weekly or monthly basis too. The hammer followed by the long red bar was a sign that this share was being oversold and would probably reverse upwards but it was not until two hours later with the doji formed that it was confirmed.

Before we look at more complex patterns it is probably wise to look at simple reversal signals based on as few as 2 or 3 candlesticks. To start with stick to daily chart comparissons although later on you might want to look more frequently on fast moving shares. These are of course just a selection, there are many others to look for.

Below you will see examples of all three types, Bullish, Bearish and Neutral. Some signals are stronger than others but we will come back to that later on. Don't be too focused on the colour as it is not as important as the size of the main body and its relationship with its neighbours.

I have already referred to this book in a previous blog but for me it is an accessible introduction to understanding the basic fundamentals of analysing candlestick charts.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Candlestick-Charts-introduction-candlestick-char ts/dp/1905641745/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1352029161&sr=8-1 

Next time:  How the Candlesticks are formed

A cautionary note, trading and investing in shares carries a level of risk, these blogs are only meant as a basic guideline to investing and trading, always do your own research and base your decisions on what you can afford to lose. This blog is not intended to provide financial advice as I am not qualified to do so, it is simply designed to provide information about how the markets work that might be of some help to private investors like myself.

Technical Analysis

Celticheart Investor

A beginner's guide to trading and investing

As I mentioned in my last blog technical analysis is the name  given to a whole host of analytical tools that can be used to examine and identify buying and selling trends in a company's share.


We do not appreciate just how lucky we are, having so many tools available to us on line, often free of charge. Although these tools lend themselves best to traders who are looking to buy and sell shares on a relatively short term basis 
it is my view that there is also a lot of valuable information that can be learned by the mid to long term investor too.

The logical place to start looking at these tools is with charts, these can be linear or candlestick depending on your preference. For me the candlestick charts are infinitely easier to interpret which is why I lean towards them.

Before I go any further I would like to stress that I am not an expert in charting, simply an enthusiastic user of charts who is, as they say, "learning as I go".

My intention with, what will be through necessity, a series of blogs, is to show you the tools that are available to you, explain what it is they are capable of showing and point you in the right direction to get more in depth tuition.

Hopefully, by taking this approach I too will learn through the process, to start with I would like to give you an overview on candlestick charts.

Candlestick Charts

The origin of these charts goes back to the 17th century, in contrast similar charts did not appear in the United States until the 19th century. They were originally used in the trading of rice, the most important commodity in Japan 
at the time but ultimately became used in establishing trading patterns for Gold, Silver and other commodities.

Strangely enough, the main factor that these charts track is not profit or loss but simply market sentiment or emotional responses to the markets.

Amazingly the Western world did not really embrace these "Candlestick" charts until the 1980's when the spread of PCs really started to take off and made access to information so much more readily available.

The principles of Candlestick charts are pretty much the same as bar charts 
and are relatively simple to understand. Every bar has 3 key elements, the real body (solid or open), the top shadow / wick and the bottom shadow / wick. 

Increments can be set as minutes, hours, days or months but for now we will just look at them on a daily basis.


The real body represents the bulk of the day's trading with the top shadow being the highest price of the day and   the bottom shadow representing the lowest price.

If the day closes up on the day's opening share price then the body will be open, but if the sp closes down the body will be solid. These days the bars are frequently shown as red (down) and green or blue (up) but the principle is the same.

The next thing to understand is the size of the body which represents volume   of trades, in a way the colour of the bar tells us less than the size of the bar because if the bar is very small it shows that there was no real dominance between buys and sells and if the bar is replaced by a single line (A Doji) this shows complete indecision in the market which can indicate a change of direction.


Doji comes in several types, including, 3rd from left,
the distinctive "Dragonfly Doji" and 4th from left, the Gravestone Doji"

We will deal with the significance of each of these doji in future blogs but for now will leave you with  a word of advice, don't get emotionally attached to doji, they are fickle little creatures at the best of times.
 

There are many books around about Candlestick charting but for me one of the best books I have found which will give you an, easy to understand, introduction to charting is "Candlestick Charts by Clive Lambert.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Candlestick-Charts-introduction-candlestick-charts/dp/1905641745/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1352029161&sr=8-1 

Next time:  Recognising patterns

A cautionary note, trading and investing in shares carries a level of risk, these blogs are only meant as a basic guideline to investing and trading, always do your own research and base your decisions on what you can afford to lose. This blog is not intended to provide financial advice as I am not qualified to do so, it is simply designed to provide information about how the markets work that might be of some help to private investors like myself.